Implication of a Pandemic On National Security: Covid 19 as a Case Study

The first seminar of CASS Lahore was held on 21 March 2023 on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on national security. A summary of the speakers’ dominant thoughts and leading views is produced below.
COVID-19’s Impact on National Security

The World Health Organisation declared COVID-19 an epidemic in March 2020 and to date, there have been at least 755 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 6.8 million confirmed deaths.
Governments around the world grappled with a situation fraught with uncertainty and panic. With extreme pressure on resources, states faced incredible challenges of chaotic governance, failing economies, collapsing health infrastructures, diplomatic rows, and social chaos. The global diplomatic order also saw disruption with selfish nationalism, blame games, border closures, import/export embargoes, and travel restrictions. However, there were also encouraging examples of international cooperation on disease control, vaccine diplomacy, and financial support offered to struggling nations. The pandemic shifted focus from traditional security to human security and established a direct link between the security of the individual and the security of the state.

Dwindling World Economy

The World Bank declared COVID-19 as “the largest global economic crisis in more than a century”. The World Economic Outlook has projected the cumulative output loss through 2024 ta be about US $13.8 trillion with wide-ranging implications for human development. In 2020, there was a decline of 5.71 percent in world GDP growth, a drop of 5.3 percent in world merchandise trade, the largest since the Great Depression of the 1930s, a 69 percent loss in passenger revenues equivalent to approximately US $116 billion, and a loss of US $1.3 trillion in revenue from tourism. The year 2020 also witnessed a loss of 255 million jobs worldwide which further exacerbated the socioeconomic divide within societies and nations. The recovery from the crisis has been challenging, with developing countries dealing with a multitude of issues stemming from the pandemic’s aftermath.

Pakistan’s Response to COVID-19

The socioeconomic impact of COVID-19 has been severe for Pakistan. There were 1.5 million confirmed cases, and 30,640 deaths. The economy also saw a negative GDP growth rate of 1.3 percent in 2020. The major challenges that Pakistan faced were primarily three; a devolved federal structure and delegated health responsibility, scarcity of capacity and resources, and the absence of effective data flow mechanisms. The focal step in the response was the establishment of the NCOC in March 2020 which then spearheaded the response campaign. It sought support from both the civil and the armed forces on war footing to deal with this crisis. The response strategy included targeted lockdowns, border control, and stringent checks at all entry points into the country. Focused emphasis was laid on capacity enhancement for beds, oxygen, ventilators, disease testing, and vaccinations. The testing capacity went up from 472 to 100,000 tests per day. For information and data flow, the pre-established framework for polio was utilised for responding to COVID-19. The same dishboard was also used for tests and the healthcare capacity which had input from all provincial systems including hospitals, labs, helpline centres, etc. This data helped create heat maps for directing resources. Despite a fragmented health structure, Pakistan’s response exceeded expectations and its success was acknowledged by Secretary-General UNO, WHO, leading publications such as The Lancet, The Economist, and Forbes.

The Myth of the Next Generation Bioweapon

COVID-19 caused a resurgence of the tabooed discussion on bioweapons. This is because many of its features resembled that of Next Generation Bioweapons; more infectious, greater transmissib-ility, and resistance to drugs. Advancements in biotechnology, genetic engineering, and DNA modification have reached a stage where targeting ethnic groups, specific crops, and poultry will be possible. Similarly, a material-eating virus, when developed, will be able to damage infrastructure, weapons, and systems. Just as hybrid warfare has become a preferable alternate strategy to all-out wars, bloweapons may also become the preferred weapon for hybrid warfare because the weapon is invisible, and the attack will usually pass for a natural event. The same concern was echoed in strategic assessments by other nations as well. Reportedly, some advanced states have the capacity to transit from vaccine production to bioweapon production in a matter of days. The weakness of the Biological Weapon Convention of 1972 to verify the compliance of states and its inability to investigate the spread of bio-diseases accentuates these apprehensions.

Key Policy Recommendations

The recommendations included the formulation of a national biodefence strategy, and the review of the National Disaster Management Authority Act to establish a clear mandate for its role and task, with proper accountability. Strengthening the resourcing and staffing of the Centre for Disease Control (CDC), the Health Data Centre, and the National Vaccine Centre is essentially required to effectively combat future health emergencies and possible pandemics. The placement of the Drug Regulatory Authority under a professional board of medical and pharmaceutical experts would greatly enhance its effectiveness and utility. For economic uplift, a road map for steady economic growth for the next 10-15 years is needed, endorsed by all political stakeholders and protected by the parliament under an act of law. Looking at the increasing frequency of infectious disease outbreaks, allocation of adequate resources to the public healthcare systems is needed to bolster resilience against such catastrophes.

Concluding Remarks

In his concluding remarks, President CASS Lahore, Air Marshal Asim Suleiman thanked the esteemed panellists for engaging in illuminating discourse on this complex, multi-faceted subject. He identified the link between the pandemic and the operational readiness of the armed forces, with examples from history as well as the present day. He highlighted the dual role of the armed forces during such scenarios: ensuring their own operational readiness, and aiding the civil in managing the pandemics. He also gave a stark reminder that the pandemic is not over and is now in its endemic stage, after having reduced global life expectancy by two years. Speaking of Pakistan’s response, he praised the role of the NCOC in managing COVID-19. The President finished by expressing the need for humanity to collaborate on responses to such events in the future as well.