Seminar
Implication of a Pandemic On National Security: Covid 19 as a Case Study
May 17, 2023
The seminar examined the global security implications of COVID-19, assessed Pakistan’s response, and explored the emerging threat of next-generation biological weapons, with a focus on strategies to enhance future resilience.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on human security. The most obvious is the cost to human health: 755 million confirmed cases, and 6.8 million confirmed deaths. COVID-19 took place in a highly globalised and interdependent world with complex supply chains, an incredibly high volume of travel, deeply interlinked economies, and escalating superpower competition. In an incredibly short amount of time, COVID-19 disrupted the national security calculus in unprecedented ways.
The repercussions of the pandemic have been severe and are still being felt: a projected cumulative loss of about US $13.8 trillion to the global economy through 2024, supply chain disruptions, job losses triggering recessions, and social unrest fuelling social upheaval. The pandemic caused political, economic, health, and social crises at the global level. It forced nations to re-evaluate concepts of national security and recalibrate to factor in large-scale, non-traditional threats of a biological nature. COVID-19 also brought focus to the empirical threat of the dual-use advancements in biotechnology, gene editing, and DNA modification techniques to create pathogens (viruses/bacteria) with enhanced killing characteristics that can be called next-generation bioweapons.
In Pakistan, there were around 1.5 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and 30,640 deaths. The socioeconomic impact of COVID-19 has been severe, causing a contraction in GDP and putting serious pressure on the country’s threadbare health infrastructure. With the world’s fifth-largest population, incredibly high urban population density, and a healthcare system already under great strain, Pakistan faced a monumental crisis with multi-layered implications, particularly on the healthcare and the economic front.
With this contextual backdrop, a seminar at CASS, Lahore, was conducted on 21 March 2023 on the topic of “The Impact of a Pandemic on National Security: Taking COVID-19 as a Case Study”. The topic was selected to examine the multi-faceted impact of COVID-19 on national security, to analyse the constraints of past responses, and to brainstorm future strategies to manage long-term risks to national security. The other intent was to explore the possible development of “Next Generation Bioweapons” in light of advancements in biotechnology and genetic studies.
The Seminar was chaired by Air Marshal Asim Suleiman, President CASS Lahore, and was moderated by researcher Sabina Babar. The four seminar speakers included two eminent guest speakers and two in-house speakers from CASS, Lahore.
- Dr Faisal Sultan, CEO of Shaukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital
- Prof Col Dr Muhammad Ashraf Chaudhry, HOD of Community Medicine at CMH Lahore Medical College
- AVM M Z Faisal (Retd), Director of Warfare and Aerospace
- Dr Ghulam Mohey-ud-din, Director of Economic Affairs.
Key Takeaways
COVID-19, declared a health emergency in January 2020 and an epidemic in March, rapidly spread from Wuhan to 180 countries within 100 days. While it shares characteristics of an ideal biological weapon, no scientific evidence suggests it was deliberately created as one. In Pakistan, the National Command Operations Centre was replaced by the Centre for Communicable Diseases, highlighting challenges in coordinating pandemic responses due to devolved federal structures. Globally, COVID-19 caused 757 million confirmed cases and 6.85 million deaths, reducing life expectancy by two years, with significant impacts on healthcare systems, including complications like organ failure in 5% of patients. The pandemic also caused a global economic decline, with a surge in debt, job losses, and a drop in global trade. National security perspectives shifted as pandemics highlighted the need for self-reliance to protect vital resources. The rise of civil unrest and concerns about next-generation bioweapons, genetically modified to target specific groups or infrastructure, further underscored the increasing vulnerability to biological threats.
Policy Considerations
Policy recommendations for Pakistan include strengthening the 1972 Biological Weapon Convention to improve transparency, verification, and prevent the misuse of biotechnology. A national biodefence strategy should be formulated, akin to the US model, to address biological threats comprehensively. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) Act should be reviewed to enhance its legal framework, mandate, and accountability. Economically, Pakistan should implement a 15-year growth plan, supported by fiscal and monetary policies that allow for economic stimulus and financial stability. Social protection systems, such as cash transfers and unemployment benefits, must be strengthened. Healthcare reforms include prioritizing the staffing and resourcing of epidemic and disease control centres, overhauling the Drug Regulatory Authority, improving health data systems, reducing vaccine dependency by boosting domestic production, and increasing public health funding to 4% of GDP. Additionally, annual mock drills should be conducted to improve pandemic response capabilities.
Post Event Report
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Guest Speakers
Air Vice Marshal M Z Faisal (Retd)
Director, Warfare and Aerospace CASS Lahore
AVM M Z Faisal served in the Air Defence branch of the PAF from 1985 to 2019. AVM Faisal holds a master’s degree in War Studies, a master’s degree in National Security & War Studies and an Executive Master’s degree in Business Administration. He is a graduate of the Combat Commander Course, and an Asghar Khan Trophy holder at the Air War Course.
AVM M Z Faisal has extensive command, staff, and instructional experience on an assortment of Air Defence systems. He commanded two radar squadrons, a Generic Mission Control Centre, a Sector Mission Control Centre, and the Headquarters Air Defence Command.
The officer remained associated with studies and projects encompassing the Air Defence of Pakistan and the Air Defence Doctrine, Defence of National VAs/VPs, and the Human Security state in Pakistan. He has participated extensively in the evaluations of Western and Chinese air defence systems.
Dr Muhammad Ashraf Chaudhry
Professor and HOD, Community Medicine CMH Lahore Medical College
Dr Muhammad Ashraf Chaudhry is a highly qualified, renowned and experienced Public Health Professional holding degrees of MBBS, DPH, MPH (USA), M.Sc (Adv Med Adm) and FCPS. He did his MBBS from Quadi-i-Azam Medical College, Bahawalpur in 1979, a Diploma in Public Health (DPH) from Punjab University in 1986, a Masters of Public Health from the United States in 1988, and M.Sc. Medical Administration from Quad-i-Azam University in 1997 and FCPS from College of Physicians & Surgeons, Karachi in 2001.
He has served in the Armed Forces for about 25 years on various Administrative Teaching appointments. He joined CMH Lahore Medical College as a Professor and HOD of Community Medicine in 2010. He has written more than 200 articles in various newspapers on important public health issues in Pakistan to raise awareness among the public. He is also the author of two books. He has supervised several Master of Public Health dissertations at the University of Punjab and the University of Health Sciences, Lahore. Dr Ashraf is also the supervisor and examiner of FCPS.
His 56 research articles have been published in various reputable national and international medical journals. He has conducted more than 50 seminars/workshops.
Dr Faisal Sultan
CEO, Shaukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital and Research Centre
Dr Faisal Sultan is an infectious diseases physician. He is a graduate of King Edward Medical College in Lahore and subsequently trained in the United States in internal medicine at the University of Connecticut and in infectious disease at Washington University School of Medicine. He is a diplomat of the American Board of Internal Medicine in the fields of internal medicine and infectious diseases. He is a Fellow of the Royal College of Physicians in Edinburgh, UK and the College of Physicians and Surgeons in Pakistan. He has worked as an infectious diseases specialist at the Shaukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital and Research Centre since 1995; served as the Medical Director of the Hospital from 2000 to 2002 and as the chief executive officer from 2003 until August 2020. After the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, he was appointed as the Prime Minister’s Focal Person on COVID-19 in Pakistan and later served as the Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on National Health Services in Pakistan from August 2020 to April 2022. He resumed his role at Shaukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital and Research Centre in April 2022. He has been a trainer and examiner in Infectious Diseases for the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Pakistan as well as a member of technical advisory committees for the National AIDS Control Program, Pakistan Medical Research Council, Pakistan Science Foundation, University of Health Science of Pakistan and the School of Biological Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore, the Punjab Healthcare Commission and on Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Advisory Committee [HVAC], WHO and has authored multiple scientific publications. He was part of the Core Group for setting Pakistan’s National Accreditation Standards for Hospitals, Ministry of Health. He has served on the Prime Minister’s task force on health and as chairman of the board of governors at Medical Teaching Institute Khyber Teaching Hospital Peshawar as well as on the steering committee for Punjab Health Strategic Plan.
Dr Ghulam Mohey-ud-din
Director, Economic Affairs CASS Lahore
Dr Mohey-ud-din has a prolific portfolio of scholarly publications and technical reports. He was a recipient of a gold medal for academic excellence in his master’s degree, and also a recipient of HEC’s indigenous PhD Fellowship. With a Doctorate in Economics from GC University Lahore, Dr Ghulam Mohey-ud- din has a thorough command of theory and application of economic research, applied econometrics, and data analysis.
His rich experience encompasses working with academia as well as the public and the private sector, including the Government of Pakistan, the Government of Punjab, The Urban Unit, Meinhardt Group, and renowned universities, among others. Previously, Dr Mohey-ud-din served the Urban Unit — P&D Board Government of Punjab as an ‘Urban Economist’ and led the socioeconomics team and also headed the R&D cell of the Punjab Small Industries Corporation (PSIC) Lahore.
He has published one book, contributed a chapter in another, authored over 15 peer-reviewed journal articles, over 10 official/technical reports, and 3 conference papers.
Throughout his career, he has been part of projects with the World Bank, UNDP, GIZ, and FCDO (DFID) in various capacities (such as team lead, lead researcher, urban economist, economic development expert, social sector expert, development economist, and transport economist).
CASS Speakers
Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd)
President CASS, Lahore
Master of the Ceremony
Researcher, CASS Lahore
Sabina Babar
The Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS) was established in July 2021 to inform policymakers and the public about issues related to aerospace and security from an independent, non-partisan and future-centric analytical lens.
