Seminar
Future Security Outlook of South Asia: Trends and Challenges
July 11, 2024
The seminar explored the evolving security challenges in South Asia, focusing on extremism, militarism, and the impact of AI and cyber technologies. Experts discussed regional stability, opportunities for dialogue, and strategies for enhancing peace and cooperation.
South Asia is grappling with both traditional and non-traditional security issues, influenced by the region’s historical conflicts, political volatility, and socio-economic disparities. The security calculus of the region is further complicated by the implications of the evolving global political landscape, technological advancement, and environmental challenges.
A major security challenge for South Asia is the rise in extremism and militarism, particularly under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who recently secured a third term in India. The country’s domestic and foreign policies have affected the regional security environment, posing serious challenges to the stability of neighbouring states, particularly Pakistan. Other persistent challenges include terrorism, economic instability, environmental degradation, and social unrest. The emergence of AI and cyber technologies further adds to the complexity of the non-traditional security equation.
The security dynamics of South Asia have profound implications not only for regional stability but also for global peace. Given that Pakistan occupies a central position in the region, the security challenges and opportunities in South Asia are of paramount importance for its national security. So, while there are challenges, opportunities for dialogue are there as well, and can help build trust and enhance regional cooperation.
In light of these challenges and opportunities, the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS), Lahore organised a seminar titled, “Future Security Outlook of South Asia: Trends and Challenges”. The seminar generated actionable insights and strategic recommendations that could help shape a secure and peaceful future for the region and beyond.
Key Takeaways
The evolving security dynamics of South Asia are increasingly shaped by strained India–Pakistan relations, particularly following August 2019, when India adopted a unilateral approach to Kashmir and disengaged from dialogue with Pakistan. This tension is further heightened by India’s ambition to assert itself in a shifting multipolar world order marked by nationalism, unilateralism, and US–China rivalry. Domestically, India’s strategic outlook is being reshaped by Hindutva ideology, contributing to the marginalisation of minorities, rising militarisation, and a more confrontational regional stance. This ideological shift is also fuelling global Islamophobia and aligning with far-right extremism. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s strategic reach is limited by its neglect of maritime priorities and the contradictions in its Afghanistan policy, particularly regarding border security and terrorism. Altogether, these developments reflect a continued reliance on Western-centric conflict narratives that overlook South Asia’s historical capacity for peace.
Policy Considerations
To secure its future in a volatile regional environment, Pakistan must enhance strategic autonomy by maintaining a balanced relationship with both the US and China, avoiding dependence on either. Prioritising maritime strategy through investment in naval capabilities is vital for safeguarding interests in the Indian Ocean and countering regional isolation. A shift towards geoeconomics—fostering inclusive, development-oriented policymaking—is essential. Provisional integration of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan into the federal framework would strengthen administrative coherence and provide constitutional clarity. Embracing digitalisation and supporting high-tech industries can help build a technology-driven society capable of meeting modern security challenges. Pakistan should invest in peace discourse to counter conflict-centric narratives and promote long-term stability. Strengthening ties with Central Asia and normalising relations with Afghanistan would offset Indian isolation efforts and open new regional avenues. Lastly, expanding nuclear deterrence remains crucial for maintaining strategic balance and responding to Indian hostilities.
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Guest Speakers
Ambassador Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhary (Retd)
Former Foreign Secretary
Ambassador Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry has served as a member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan for 37 years, rising to the rank of the Foreign Secretary of Pakistan for over three years from December 2013 to March 2017. Mr. Chaudhry’s last diplomatic assignment was as Ambassador of Pakistan to the United States of America.
He also served as Ambassador of Pakistan to the Netherlands, Foreign Office Spokesman, and deputy permanent representative of Pakistan to the United Nations in New York. As Director General for relations with South Asia, he remained closely associated with India-Pakistan peace process. After his retirement from the Foreign Service, Ambassador Chaudhry served as the Director General of Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad for over four years. He has authored two books and numerous research articles.
His recent book is a memoir ‘Diplomatic Footprints’ that discusses the intricacies of foreign policy making in Pakistan. Ambassador Chaudhry holds Masters in International Relations from Tufts University, Massachusetts, and a First Class First Bachelor of Science from Punjab University, Lahore.
Dr Khuram Iqbal
Associate Professor, National Defence University, Pakistan
Associate Professor Khuram Iqbal is a faculty member at National Defence University, Pakistan. He also serves as the Editor of the Journal of Contemporary Studies. He is a member of the Editorial Board of the Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism, published by Taylor and Francis. His recent achievements include completing his third post-doctorate at the Department of Security Studies and Criminology, Macquarie University, Australia, where he specialized in non-kinetic counterterrorism approaches.
Dr. Iqbal previously served as the head of the Department of International Relations at NDU. Prior to this, Dr. Iqbal was affiliated with the Centre for Transnational Crimes Prevention, Australia, and the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, Singapore. He also remained associated with the University of Maryland (United States) and the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS).
Dr. Iqbal has lent his expertise as a consultant on Countering Violent Extremism to esteemed national and international organisations, including UNESCO, HSF, NACTA, and the US Department of Justice. He is ranked among the most globally cited scholars of Security Studies from Pakistan.
Dr Farhan Siddiqui
Associate Professor, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad
Dr. Farhan Hanif Siddiqi is an accomplished Associate Professor at the School of Politics and International Relations at Quaid-i Azam University in Islamabad. With a diverse range of research interests, his expertise spans across ethnic politics, federalism, conflict analysis and resolution, societal security, and crisis management. In 2023, Dr. Siddiqi co-authored a significant book titled “Introducing International Relations: Concepts, Theories, and Practices,” which was published by the prestigious Oxford University Press. This publication showcases his in-depth knowledge and understanding of international relations concepts and theories. Furthermore, Dr. Siddiqi is also recognised for his solo work, particularly his book “The Politics of Ethnicity in Pakistan: The Baloch, Sindhi and Mohajir Ethnic Movements,” published by Routledge in 2012. This publication delves into the intricate dynamics of ethnic movements in Pakistan, shedding light on the complexities of Baloch, Sindhi, and Mohajir ethnicities within the country. With a strong academic background and a wealth of experience in the field of politics and international relations, Dr. Farhan Hanif Siddiqi stands out as a prominent figure in academia, contributing significantly to the understanding of ethnic politics, conflict resolution, and societal security in Pakistan and beyond.
CASS Speakers
Ameer Abdullah Khan
Senior Researcher, CASS Lahore
Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd)
President, CASS Lahore
Master of the Ceremony
Researcher
Mehroo Waqas
The Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS) was established in July 2021 to inform policymakers and the public about issues related to aerospace and security from an independent, non-partisan and future-centric analytical lens.
